The $15k quarter test

TAKEOliver Wakefield-Smith · Digital SignetSources checked July 31, 2026

Cue

What does a proper podcast advertising test cost?

A defensible first test runs about $15,000 over a quarter: three shows, three-plus host-read spots each, at the published $24-26 CPM card. That buys 576,923-625,000 impressions, models to roughly 115-125 orders at disclosed assumptions, and produces a measured CAC a CFO can compare against your blended number.

576,923-625,000Impressions15,000 ÷ 26 and ÷ 24, x 1,000

5,769-6,250Modeled visitsAt 1.0% visit rate (assumption)

115-125Modeled ordersAt 2.0% CVR (assumption)

$120-130Modeled CAC15,000 ÷ 125 and ÷ 115

The plan

Three mid-tail shows (roughly 15,000-30,000 downloads per episode) in your audience’s niche, three to four spots each across the quarter, all host-read 60s, each show on its own promo code. Priced off the published card : a 20,000-download show at $25 CPM is $500 per spot; four spots on each of three such shows is $6,000 per month of flighting, or $15,000 spread across the quarter with production and contingency. Buy through Libsyn Ads or Gumball; at this budget an agency fee is not yet earning its keep (the route math).

The model, with its joints showing

Impressions are rate-card arithmetic: 15,000 ÷ 26 x 1,000 = 576,923 and 15,000 ÷ 24 x 1,000 = 625,000. Everything after is assumption: the 1% visit rate and 2% CVR are inputs you set from your own funnel history, not podcast facts. Change them in the Test Modeler and the orders and CAC move linearly. The deck slide must disclose them as yours; the fastest way to lose a CFO is a model whose assumptions surface under questioning instead of up front.

Go / no-go, committed in advance

Write the thresholds before the first spot airs. A workable set: scale if measured CAC lands within 1.5x of modeled CAC on at least one show; iterate creative if delivery completed but CAC ran 1.5-2x model; stop if CAC exceeds 2x model across all three shows after the full flight. The measurement stack this requires is promo codes plus, at this spend level, pixel attribution; the payback arithmetic is on CAC and payback.

Deck export · paste into your budget slide

Podcast test proposal: $15,000, one quarter, host-read spots.
CPM basis: $24-26 published rate (Libsyn Ads card, checked Jul 2026; advertiseonpodcasts.com/ledger).
Reach: 576,923-625,000 impressions across 3 shows, 3+ spots each.
At 1.0% visit rate and 2.0% CVR (our assumptions, disclosed): ~115-125 orders.
Modeled CAC: $120-130. Payback modeled against contribution margin, not revenue.
Kill criteria pre-committed: measured CAC > 2x target after full flight = stop.

Present it: pitch your CFO · Scale it: the $50k quarter · Rate provenance: the rates hub